Ethiopian case-control study yields internally validated lung cancer risk model

A lung cancer risk prediction model developed from an Ethiopian case-control study achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.775 during internal validation, according to the study abstract. The model also achieved 72% sensitivity and 72% specificity at what the investigators described as the optimal cutoff.

The study included 1,255 adults: 251 people with lung cancer and 1,004 controls. Researchers fitted a multivariable logistic regression model and assessed internal performance with 10-fold cross-validation and 2,000 bootstrap resamples. The abstract reports that performance was consistent across the bootstrap resampling and cross-validation analyses.

The final model included eight predictors: age, sex, household solid fuel use, asbestos exposure, years of smoking, years of exposure to secondhand smoke, prior tuberculosis, and family history of cancer. Investigators also derived a simplified, point-based risk score intended to improve practical applicability. The abstract states that the score had discriminatory performance and classification accuracy comparable with the full model. The supplied abstract does not provide confidence intervals for the reported performance measures.

These findings describe a prediction model and its performance within the studied population, rather than evidence that using the tools improves clinical outcomes or produces benefits from screening or prevention interventions. The case-control design and internal validation limit the conclusions that can be drawn about performance in other populations. External validation is required to establish generalizability. The authors further state that recalibration to population-level incidence would be needed if the model is used to estimate absolute risk or define population-based clinical or public health thresholds. The article was published in BMC Cancer as open-access research; the version supplied was identified as subject to further edits before replacement by the final Version of Record.

Subject of Research: Internal validation of a locally developed lung cancer risk prediction model in Ethiopia

Article Title: Development and validation of a lung cancer risk prediction model in Ethiopia

Article References: Estifanos, N., Egata, G., Addissie, A., Yusuf, H., Bitew, A., Getachew, A., & Deyessa, N. (2026). Development and validation of a lung cancer risk prediction model in Ethiopia. BMC Cancer. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-026-16997-x

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1186/s12885-026-16997-x

Keywords: lung cancer, risk prediction, case-control study, internal validation, logistic regression, AUC, Ethiopia, risk score, Development, validation, lung, cancer