COVID-19 Vaccines Yielded High Global Economic Returns in First Year

A model-based economic evaluation has estimated that the global return-on-investment for COVID-19 vaccination ranged between $59.7 and $809 per dollar invested during the first year of the vaccination programme. Conducted to evaluate the economic returns relative to the costs of vaccine development, manufacturing, and delivery between 8 December 2020 and 8 December 2021, the analysis showed that while vaccine development and delivery required an expenditure of $79.4 billion, the resulting health and economic benefits were valued between $6.43 trillion and $64.3 trillion globally.

To quantify the public health outcomes of the vaccination campaign, the researchers modeled the life years and quality-adjusted life years gained from averted deaths, infections, and hospitalizations. These health benefits were subsequently valued using two methodological approaches: a cost-benefit analysis and a cost-effectiveness analysis. The calculated benefits under both frameworks were then compared directly against the combined expenses associated with vaccine development, manufacturing, and delivery.

The evaluation found distinct distributional patterns across economic settings. High-income countries recorded the greatest health benefits per person vaccinated. In contrast, low-income countries gained the greatest nonhealth benefits per person vaccinated when expressed as a proportion of gross domestic product per capita. Across probabilistic sensitivity analyses conducted to assess parameter uncertainty, the estimated returns-on-investment remained high, ranging between $60.3 and $753 per dollar invested across both evaluation approaches.

The authors highlighted key limitations in the evaluation, notably its reliance on previous analyses of COVID-19 vaccination impact and a time horizon restricted solely to the first year of vaccination. The evaluation concluded that rapid vaccine development and delivery represented an excellent investment, noting that vaccine development and equitable vaccine distribution globally should be prioritized before and during global health crises.

Subject of Research: Global return-on-investment of COVID-19 vaccination programmes

Article Title: Global return-on-investment of COVID-19 vaccines in the first year of the vaccination programme: A model-based economic evaluation

Article References: Benjamin, H., Barnsley, G., Watson, O. J., & Jit, M. (2026). Global return-on-investment of COVID-19 vaccines in the first year of the vaccination programme: A model-based economic evaluation. PLOS Medicine, 23(11), e1004772. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004772

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004772

Keywords: COVID-19 vaccines, return on investment, health economics, cost-benefit analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, public health, global health, vaccination programme, Global, return-on-investment, COVID-19, vaccines