UK Biobank study finds modest link between adiposity increase and cardiovascular risk

A longitudinal analysis of 49,742 UK Biobank participants found that greater increases in a multidimensional measure of adiposity were associated with a modestly higher risk of incident cardiovascular disease. During a median follow-up of 4.11 years, 1,971 cardiovascular disease events occurred. The finding represents an observed association and does not establish that changes in adiposity directly cause cardiovascular disease.

The researchers used anthropometric measurements collected at baseline and at participants’ first imaging assessment to assess how body shape and adiposity changed over time. Their multidimensional adiposity index combined body mass index, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio and waist-to-height ratio. The primary exposure was the annualized change in this composite index, assessing changes across several body-size measures rather than body mass index alone.

Cox proportional hazards models estimated the association between changes in adiposity and incident cardiovascular disease. In the primary adjusted model, each one-standard-deviation increase in annualized multidimensional adiposity change was associated with a 4.5% higher cardiovascular disease risk (hazard ratio, 1.045; 95% confidence interval, 1.002–1.090; P = 0.0407). The confidence interval was close to 1, reflecting a modest association and uncertainty around the estimated effect size.

Exploratory analyses separately assessed newly recorded low-overlap dysfunction. Higher cardiovascular disease risk estimates were observed among participants with newly recorded dysfunction only, with a hazard ratio of 1.306 (95% confidence interval, 1.014–1.682), and among participants with both anthropometric worsening and newly recorded dysfunction, with a hazard ratio of 1.550 (95% confidence interval, 1.051–2.285). These exploratory results do not show that dysfunction or adiposity change independently predicts cardiovascular disease, and the reported study conclusion focused on the association between greater multidimensional adiposity change and higher subsequent cardiovascular disease risk.

Overall, the findings suggest that tracking changes across multiple adiposity measures may provide information beyond body mass index alone in this UK Biobank population. The observational design leaves open the possibility that other factors contributed to the relationships, and the results do not show that participants with larger adiposity changes were certain to experience cardiovascular disease. The study’s stated conclusion was that greater long-term multidimensional adiposity change was associated with higher subsequent cardiovascular disease risk.

Subject of Research: Longitudinal multidimensional adiposity change and incident cardiovascular disease risk in UK Biobank participants

Article Title: Longitudinal multidimensional adiposity change and subsequent cardiovascular risk in UK Biobank

Article References: Kwon, R. J., & Lim, Y. (2026). Longitudinal multidimensional adiposity change and subsequent cardiovascular risk in UK Biobank. BMC Endocrine Disorders. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12902-026-02649-5

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1186/s12902-026-02649-5

Keywords: UK Biobank, adiposity, cardiovascular disease, body mass index, waist circumference, longitudinal study, incident CVD, anthropometry, risk assessment, Longitudinal, multidimensional, change