Lifestyle changes could prevent 184,000 deaths a year in five Latin American countries, model finds

Adhering to World Health Organization recommendations on tobacco, alcohol, diet and physical activity could have prevented or delayed an estimated 184,111 deaths from non-communicable diseases in a single year across five Latin American countries, according to a modelling study published in Globalization and Health.

The researchers used the Preventable Risk Integrated Model, or PRIME, to compare how people actually live with a hypothetical counterfactual scenario in which everyone meets WHO lifestyle recommendations. The model was applied to data from national surveys in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and El Salvador, covering 259,327 participants. Because PRIME is a simulation, the figures represent estimated potential deaths avoided in 2021, not deaths that were actually observed to be prevented.

Self-reported information on fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity, alcohol use and tobacco smoking was stratified by sex and age group before being fed into the model. The outcome measures were changes in annual deaths from cardiovascular disease, diabetes and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, three of the major non-communicable disease categories driving mortality in the region.

Cardiovascular disease represented 46.3 percent of the total preventable deaths, making it the single largest contributor among the disease outcomes modelled.

Among the lifestyle risk factors, tobacco smoking contributed the largest share of the estimated preventable deaths at 56.8 percent. Physical inactivity followed at 25.0 percent, inadequate fruit and vegetable intake at 11.0 percent, and alcohol use at 6.9 percent. The authors note that these are population-level estimates of mortality attributable to modifiable behaviours rather than individual-level predictions.

The study’s reliance on self-reported data is an important limitation, since survey respondents may understate or overstate their smoking, drinking, dietary habits and activity levels. The counterfactual scenario also assumes a complete shift to WHO recommendations, an idealised benchmark that no population is expected to reach, so the estimates should be read as an upper bound on the deaths that preventive policies could plausibly avert.

Non-communicable diseases are the leading causes of death in Latin American countries, yet the burden attributable to lifestyle risk factors in the region has remained poorly understood, the authors write in the study’s background.

The authors conclude that strengthening preventive strategies targeting these key behaviours could substantially reduce the non-communicable disease burden in the region. They caution, however, that the findings are model-based projections for five countries in 2021 and do not by themselves establish what any specific intervention would achieve in practice.

The article was published on 14 October 2026 as an open-access research paper, and the version shared at publication is subject to further editorial edits before the final version of record replaces it.

Subject of Research: Modelling of non-communicable disease mortality attributable to lifestyle risk factors in five Latin American countries using the PRIME model.

Article Title: Non-communicable diseases mortality attributable to lifestyle risk factors in 5 Latin American countries: a PRIME model study

Article References: Ferrero-Hernández, P., Farías-Valenzuela, C., Rezende, L. F. M., Nilson, E., Wahrhaftig, J., de Campos, L. F. C. C., & Ferrari, G. (2026). Non-communicable diseases mortality attributable to lifestyle risk factors in 5 Latin American countries: a PRIME model study. Globalization and Health. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12992-026-01249-1

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1186/s12992-026-01249-1

Keywords: non-communicable diseases, PRIME model, Latin America, tobacco smoking, physical inactivity, cardiovascular disease, WHO recommendations, lifestyle risk factors, public health, modelling study, diet, alcohol use