New research conducted by Griffith University has unveiled alarming predictions regarding the impact of climate change on Queensland’s aquaculture landscape. The study indicates that over 43% of the state’s currently productive aquaculture sites face a significant threat from sea level rise. This revelation is particularly concerning for the region renowned for its coastal pond-based production, where the livelihoods of many depend on the sustainability of these practices. The implications of such environmental changes reach beyond ecological consequences, potentially jeopardizing the economic stability of the aquaculture sector.
In assessing the risks posed by projected sea level rise, researchers found that the majority of prawn production and sites within Queensland may experience catastrophic consequences. Specifically, it is projected that around 98% of prawn sites, along with about 50% of total prawn production, are likely to be adversely affected. This statistic highlights the vulnerability of the aquaculture sector in the face of rising sea levels, which pose a severe threat to both the environment and human livelihoods alike.
Economic assessments of the potential impact of inundation paint a stark picture for Queensland’s aquaculture sector. It is estimated that annual economic losses could range between AUD $12.6 million to $22.6 million for barramundi and a staggering AUD $36.9 million to $127.6 million for prawns by the year 2100. This financial forecast underscores the critical need for immediate, strategic planning and action to mitigate these anticipated losses, signaling a call to action for stakeholders within the aquaculture industry.
The lead researcher, Marina Christofidis, a PhD candidate at Griffith University’s Australian Rivers Institute, emphasized the importance of this research in understanding the breadth of risk that climate change represents to Queensland’s aquatic industries. Her assertions highlight that Queensland, being Australia’s largest terrestrial aquaculture producer, must confront the realities of environmental changes driven by climate shifts. Under high-emission scenarios, projections indicate a sea level rise of approximately 0.8 meters by the year 2100, further exacerbating the conditions for aquaculture producers.
Christofidis stresses the vital role that aquaculture plays in food security, particularly as global demand for seafood continues to rise. With the seafood industry being an integral component of the region’s economy, it is crucial to assess and address the vulnerabilities posed by climate change. This assessment is not merely an academic exercise but a necessary step towards integrating climate risk considerations into the planning and operational frameworks of coastal industries, including aquaculture.
To conduct this comprehensive study, Christofidis and her research team utilized existing datasets related to coastal inundation and erosion derived from Queensland government sources. By marrying these datasets with innovative, satellite-derived information regarding current aquaculture production locations and designated development areas, they were able to construct a detailed dataset encompassing approximately 647.14 square kilometers, which includes 341 lots and 275 farms across Queensland.
The research also identified local government areas (LGAs) likely to face the most severe impacts from sea level rise. For example, the Cassowary Coast Regional area is projected to lose approximately 3.89 square kilometers of productive aquaculture space, accounting for an alarming 71% of its total aquaculture capacity. Other affected regions include the Whitsunday Regional at 39%, the Gold Coast Regional at 57%, and the Mackay Regional, which could face complete inundation of productive aquaculture space.
A deeper analysis of specific aquaculture types revealed that prawn production areas would be particularly vulnerable. The Gold Coast City is expected to experience 92% of its productive prawn ponds at risk of flooding. Similarly, the Burdekin Shire, Isaac Regional, and Cassowary Coast Regional areas are forecast to lose substantial areas dedicated to prawn farming, emphasizing an urgent need for adaptive management strategies.
On the other hand, barramundi production sites will also face non-negligible challenges. For instance, the Whitsunday Regional area is projected to lose around 0.43 square kilometers of barramundi ponds, constituting approximately 73% of its total production capacity. Douglas Shire and Cassowary Coast Regional will also face considerable reductions, illustrating widespread vulnerabilities within the aquaculture sector.
Christofidis warns that these findings are preliminary indicators of a more significant, systemic threat to Queensland’s aquaculture industry. Thus, it is imperative to weave climate risk into the fabric of coastal industries’ planning and operational strategies. This integration is essential not only for Australia but also for global coastal aquaculture practices, which face similar climatic challenges.
For the future viability of aquaculture in Queensland, she advocates for meticulous planning and adaptability, particularly in areas designated as high-risk aquaculture development zones. Such planning should take into consideration potential future sea level rise to prevent misguided investments in vulnerable regions.
Moreover, Christofidis suggests transitioning from traditional aquaculture methods to more resilient systems. Innovative solutions, such as integrating prawn ponds with nature-based protective measures, could significantly enhance the resilience of coastal aquaculture infrastructures. Initiatives like planting mangroves, establishing green seawalls, creating artificial reefs, and implementing netting and fencing can provide critical defenses against the threats posed by rising waters.
The study titled “One-third of Australia’s coastal terrestrial aquaculture at risk from sea level rise” has been published in the journal Aquaculture Science and Management, where it stands as a call to action for researchers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders alike. The importance of these findings extends beyond academic circles; they serve as a critical reflection of the intersectionality between climate change, food security, and economic sustainability.
By confronting these challenges head-on, stakeholders across the aquaculture industry can develop strategies that not only protect current resources but also sustain future production in the face of climate change. The time for comprehensive planning integrated with climate resilience is now, to secure both Queensland’s aquaculture industries and the livelihoods that depend upon them for generations to come.
Subject of Research: The impact of sea level rise on Queensland’s aquaculture sites.
Article Title: One-third of Australia’s coastal terrestrial aquaculture at risk from sea level rise.
News Publication Date: October 2023.
Web References: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s44365-025-00009-3
References: Griffith University and Aquaculture Science and Management.
Image Credits: Marina Christofidis.
Keywords: aquaculture, sea level rise, climate change, Queensland, economic impact, food security, coastal industries, environmental risks.
Tags: climate change impact on aquaculturecoastal pond-based aquacultureeconomic impact of environmental changeeconomic stability of aquaculture sectorenvironmental consequences of sea level risefuture of Australia’s aquaculture industryGriffith University research findingslivelihoods affected by climate changeprawn production vulnerabilitysea level rise in Queenslandsustainable aquaculture practicesthreats to coastal aquaculture