Tigray farmers face severe seed insecurity after war

A cross-sectional study published in Agricultural and Food Economics reveals that smallholder farmers in war-affected areas of Tigray, Northern Ethiopia, experience high levels of household seed insecurity. The research, conducted from April to December 2024, surveyed 548 households across three districts to assess the extent of this insecurity and the coping strategies employed by farmers. The mean household seed insecurity experience score was 9.41 out of a possible 17, a figure significantly higher than benchmark values reported in non-conflict settings. This finding underscores the severe disruption to agricultural resilience caused by the recent armed conflict in the region.

The study utilized a mixed-method approach, combining household surveys with focus group discussions to capture both quantitative metrics and qualitative insights. Data were collected from Laelay Maichew, Kola Tembien, and Asgede districts, which were selected due to their documented exposure to severe conflict during the 2020–2022 war. The researchers adapted the Food and Agriculture Organization’s seed security framework to measure insecurity across four pillars: availability, access, quality, and varietal suitability. This comprehensive assessment allowed for a detailed examination of how conflict-related disruptions impact different aspects of the seed system.

Seed availability emerged as a critical area of concern, with 69% of households expressing worry that they would not have sufficient saved seeds for all cropping seasons. Additionally, 55% of households reported selling all their seeds without saving any for the next growing period. Focus group discussions confirmed that war-related disruptions, including the destruction of storage facilities and the breakdown of community seed networks, made it impossible for many farmers to maintain seed stocks year to year. These systemic constraints highlight the fragility of local seed systems in the face of acute conflict.

Access to seeds was another major challenge, with 73% of households stating that seeds were not accessible due to high costs. The conflict disrupted markets and banking services, forcing many farmers to rely on informal seed exchanges or credit-based acquisitions from relatives and neighbors. However, these coping mechanisms were often insufficient and unreliable, further exacerbating the insecurity. The high cost of seeds, combined with limited market access, created a significant barrier for farmers trying to secure planting materials for their crops.

Seed quality also suffered significantly, with 73% of households reporting that their seeds were mixed with inert materials such as soil and manure. Another 54% indicated the presence of infected seeds. Farmers in the study described the difficulty of determining the correct sowing rates when seeds were contaminated, leading to further inefficiencies in agricultural production.

Varietal suitability was compromised as well, with nearly 71% of households growing varieties that were not their preferred choices. Many farmers were forced to plant unfamiliar or non-adapted varieties because their traditional seeds were lost or stolen during the conflict.

The study identified several key determinants of seed insecurity using Poisson regression models. Poor wealth status was associated with higher levels of seed insecurity, while households with medium or higher wealth status experienced lower insecurity scores. Crop diversity also played a protective role, with households growing a greater variety of crops reporting lower seed insecurity. Education level and distance to market were also significant factors, with more educated households and those closer to markets experiencing better seed security outcomes.

Temporal analysis revealed that seed insecurity remained elevated even in the post-conflict period. This suggests that the systemic disruptions caused by the conflict, such as the breakdown of seed networks and loss of assets, have created lasting deficits that do not immediately resolve with the cessation of hostilities. The transition from an acute crisis to a protracted stress equilibrium highlights the need for sustained recovery efforts.

Households employed a wide array of coping strategies to manage seed insecurity, ranging from adaptive to erosive measures. The most common strategies included harnessing social seed networks, saving seeds by reducing daily food consumption, and obtaining credit to purchase seeds. However, many households also resorted to selling farm animals and non-productive assets to secure seeds, which can undermine their long-term livelihoods.

The study emphasizes the importance of context-specific intervention strategies that address the root causes of seed insecurity in war-affected areas. Strengthening social seed networks, promoting participatory seed multiplication, and ensuring inclusive information dissemination are crucial steps toward enhancing farmer seed security. Additionally, integrating seed security initiatives with nutrition and food security programs can help mitigate the adverse effects of coping strategies. The findings offer strategic insights for policymakers and development organizations working to support agricultural recovery in conflict-affected regions.

Limitations of the study include its cross-sectional design, which makes it difficult to track changes in seed insecurity over time. The focus on specific districts in Tigray may also limit the generalizability of the findings to other conflict-affected areas with different agricultural practices and conflict dynamics. Furthermore, the reliance on self-reported data could introduce recall bias, particularly regarding past experiences with seed access and storage. Future research should adopt longitudinal approaches to better understand the dynamics of seed insecurity and the effectiveness of various intervention strategies.

The severity of seed insecurity in Tigray underscores the urgent need for coordinated efforts among stakeholders to address these challenges. By understanding the complex interplay between conflict, seed systems, and household coping strategies, researchers and practitioners can develop more effective and targeted interventions. These interventions should aim to restore seed availability, improve access, enhance quality, and ensure varietal suitability, thereby supporting the long-term resilience of smallholder farmers in the region.

The study’s measurement framework relied on a 17-item Seed Insecurity Experience Score, derived from the Household Seed Insecurity Assessment Scale. This instrument captures farmer experiences across four interrelated pillars: availability, access, quality, and varietal suitability. Each indicator was recorded as a binary response, where an affirmative answer indicated the experience of seed insecurity in that specific domain. The resulting score, ranging from 0 to 17, allowed researchers to quantify the severity of insecurity at the household level. To ensure the tool was relevant to the local context, the indicators were refined through focus group discussions in each study district before the main survey began. This adaptation process helped align the global seed security framework with the specific realities of farming in Tigray.

Respondents were asked to recall their seed-related experiences over a four-year period, spanning from 2020 to 2024. This timeframe was divided into four distinct phases based on documented conflict timelines: early conflict, peak conflict, late conflict, and post-conflict. Using local agricultural calendars and seasonal events as memory anchors helped reduce recall bias and allowed for a more accurate assessment of how seed security dynamics shifted over time. The cross-sectional nature of the data means that these temporal comparisons reflect differences in recall conditions across phases rather than longitudinal trajectories of individual households.

Qualitative data from focus group discussions provided crucial context for the quantitative findings. Participants described how the conflict disrupted the social seed network, a pre-existing system of sharing, borrowing, and gifting seeds that is vital for maintaining crop diversity and local resilience. The war forced many farmers to abandon their fields, leaving seeds and grains exposed to looting and destruction. This breakdown in community support structures meant that households could no longer rely on traditional mechanisms to secure planting materials. The discussions also highlighted the gendered dimensions of seed management, noting that women often hold undocumented expertise in seed selection and storage. However, the study’s operational definition of household head, which typically identified male decision-makers, limited the ability to fully capture these gendered differences in the quantitative analysis.

The study found that households with higher seed insecurity scores were more likely to rely on these short-term survival measures, while those with better market access and higher crop diversity employed more adaptive strategies. This pattern underscores the importance of addressing the underlying determinants of seed insecurity, such as wealth status and education, to support sustainable recovery.

Such studies would also benefit from including a wider range of community perspectives and gender-disaggregated data to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the challenges facing smallholder farmers in post-conflict settings.

Subject of Research: Household seed insecurity and coping strategies in war-affected Tigray, Ethiopia

Article Title: Household seed insecurity and coping strategies in war affected areas of Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

Article References: Welderufael, S., Gidey, T., Gebreslassie, H., Hishe, M., Gebrehiwet, H., & Asefa, A. (2026). Household seed insecurity and coping strategies in war affected areas of Tigray, Northern Ethiopia. Agricultural and Food Economics, 14(1), Article 54. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40100-026-00496-5

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1186/s40100-026-00496-5

Keywords: seed security, Tigray, Ethiopia, conflict, smallholder farmers, coping strategies, agricultural resilience, food security, Household, seed, insecurity, coping