As the global climate continues to evolve at an unprecedented pace, the imperative to secure agricultural productivity and food security has never been more critical. Africa, a continent marked by remarkable agro-biodiversity yet vulnerable to climatic stressors, stands at a pivotal crossroads. Recent research utilising advanced crop modelling techniques has cast new light on the future viability of not only staple crops but also a diverse array of traditional and indigenous “opportunity crops” that have remained on the periphery of mainstream agricultural development. This emerging scientific effort reveals profound variations in crop resilience across different plant types and African regions, potentially reshaping strategies for climate adaptation and crop breeding across the continent.
The study at the centre of this breakthrough harnesses the SIMPLE process-based crop model, a robust simulation tool designed to forecast crop yields under varying environmental scenarios. By integrating climate projections aligned with both low- and high-emission pathways, the researchers systematically evaluated the productivity of five staple crops alongside nineteen African opportunity crops. The result is a granular understanding of how climate change is likely to impact agricultural outputs, highlighting crops that could serve as keystones for future food security and economic stability in Africa.
One of the revelations from the model is the pronounced resilience of root and tuber crops under future climate conditions. These crops, including species such as cassava, demonstrate a remarkable capacity to maintain or even boost productivity despite increasing climatic challenges. This resilience is significant given the heavy reliance of many African populations on roots and tubers as dietary staples and sources of calories. The model predicts that crops such as cassava, teff, grass pea, sesame seed, and finger millet will see some of the greatest gains in productivity, positioning them as strategic crops for future agricultural investments and breeding programs.
Conversely, vegetables emerge as the most vulnerable crop group in the face of climate change. The sensitivity of vegetable yields to changing temperature regimes, precipitation variability, and extreme weather events raises alarm given their essential role in nutrition and livelihood diversification across many African communities. The projected declines underscore the urgent need for targeted research to improve the climate resilience of these crops or to identify suitable substitutes that can flourish under new environmental conditions.
The decline in productivity is not restricted to minor crops. Major staple crops such as maize, along with other noteworthy opportunity crops including mung bean, lablab, amaranth, and Bambara groundnut, are projected to experience substantial decreases in yield. These trends evoke serious concerns because maize is a cornerstone crop in many African diets, and the other legumes and grains contribute vital nutrients as well as economic values. Furthermore, key cash crops like soybean and cowpea, integral to African agricultural economies and global trade, are also forecasted to face comparable losses, signaling profound economic and food security ramifications.
Geographical disparities further complicate the picture. The Sahel region, which is characterized by harsh climatic conditions and limited agroecological resources, appears most susceptible to the detrimental impacts of climate change on crop productivity. This vulnerability threatens to exacerbate food insecurity and economic instability in an already fragile region. In contrast, East and Central Africa display a comparatively higher resilience, suggesting localized adaptation strategies may be effective in mitigating productivity losses and harnessing the potential of opportunity crops in these areas.
These spatial differences reinforce the importance of region-specific approaches to agricultural adaptation and crop improvement. A one-size-fits-all intervention is unlikely to yield optimal results given the diversity of climate impacts and crop responses across the continent. Instead, investment strategies must be closely aligned with the unique climatic, soil, and socioeconomic contexts of African agricultural systems.
The research offers a compelling scientific foundation for inclusion of opportunity crops in national and regional adaptation frameworks. Historically overlooked or marginalized in agricultural policy and investment, these crops are now emerging as crucial components in the vision for climate-resilient agriculture. Their inherent hardiness and adaptive growth traits could offset the vulnerabilities seen in staple and cash crops, fostering diversified, sustainable agricultural landscapes capable of withstanding future climatic stresses.
The methodological approach underlying this research—the use of the SIMPLE process-based crop model—embodies a sophisticated integration of crop physiology, climate science, and agronomy. By simulating growth processes and yield formation under projected environmental conditions, the model facilitates nuanced predictions that transcend simplistic correlative analyses. This permits stakeholders to anticipate shifts in agroecosystem dynamics with greater precision and to plan accordingly.
Importantly, the study also highlights knowledge gaps and areas requiring further refinement. While modelling provides powerful insights, it inherently entails assumptions and uncertainties, particularly in relation to climate projections and crop responses to complex stressors such as drought, heatwaves, and soil degradation. Continuous calibration with field data and validation across diverse African landscapes remain essential to hone the accuracy and applicability of these projections.
From a policy perspective, the findings underscore a clear mandate for enhanced investment in research and development targeting opportunity crops. Breeding efforts focusing on improving yield stability, pest and disease resistance, and nutrient use efficiency under changing climates are vital. Equally, extension services and market development initiatives must support farmers in adopting and commercializing these crops to maximize their adaptive potential.
Moreover, integrating opportunity crops into climate-smart agricultural systems aligns with broader sustainability goals, including biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service enhancement. Their cultivation often requires fewer inputs and can improve soil health, thereby contributing to the resilience of agricultural landscapes beyond mere productivity metrics.
The social dimensions of opportunity crop adoption also warrant attention. Embracing these crops can empower smallholder farmers by diversifying income sources and reducing dependency on a narrow set of staples vulnerable to climatic shocks. Additionally, cultural preferences and culinary traditions linked to indigenous crops can drive acceptance and sustained cultivation, ensuring that adaptation interventions are socially acceptable and impactful.
At a continental scale, this research supports the Vision for Adapted Crops and Soils—an ambitious agenda that seeks to harness science and innovation to future-proof African agriculture. The nuanced crop-specific and region-specific insights provided by this modelling effort offer actionable intelligence to guide resource allocation and policy formulation, enhancing the continent’s preparedness against climate uncertainty.
In sum, this groundbreaking study elucidates the complex interplay between climate change and agricultural productivity in Africa, spotlighting the transformative potential of opportunity crops. By delineating pathways for resilience and adaptation through robust scientific modelling, it paves the way for a more diverse and sustainable agricultural future. For Africa and global food systems alike, this heralds new hope in the quest to feed burgeoning populations amidst the mounting challenges posed by global warming.
Subject of Research: The study focuses on modelling the productivity of staple and opportunity crops across Africa to assess their resilience and responses under future climate change projections.
Article Title: Modelling the productivity of opportunity crops across Africa under climate change in support of the Vision for Adapted Crops and Soils.
Article References:
Guarin, J.R., Yang, M., MacCarthy, D.S. et al. Modelling the productivity of opportunity crops across Africa under climate change in support of the Vision for Adapted Crops and Soils. Nat. Plants (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-025-02157-9
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-025-02157-9
Tags: advanced crop modelling techniquesAfrican crop productivityagricultural outputs under climate scenariosagro-biodiversity in Africaclimate adaptation strategiesclimate change impact on agriculturecrop resilience variationseconomic stability through crop diversityfood security in Africafuture food security solutionsindigenous opportunity cropsSIMPLE process-based crop model
