Positive Future Expectations Linked to Fertility Intentions Among South Korean Young Adults

Young adults in South Korea who maintain positive future expectations are significantly more likely to hold fertility intentions, according to a quantitative research study published in Archives of Public Health. Researchers Seoyeong Choi, Eunjeong Choi, and Suk-Yong Jang evaluated data from the 2023 Korea Youth Life Survey to examine how individuals’ outlooks correlate with their childbearing plans within an increasingly urbanized society. The primary findings revealed that young adults reporting positive future expectations were 1.46 times more likely to express intentions to have children, reflecting a prevalence ratio of 1.46 with a 95% confidence interval of 1.34 to 1.59. Crucially, this positive statistical association remained statistically significant even after the researchers conducted stepwise adjustments to control for major potential confounders, such as household income, employment status, and perceived socioeconomic status.

To conduct their quantitative analysis, the authors utilized secondary data obtained from the nationally representative 2023 Korea Youth Life Survey. As a conceptual framework, the study drew directly upon Snyder’s Hope Theory, originally established in 1994, to structure its investigation into youth perspectives. The participants’ outlooks were measured using a self-reported scale specifically designed to evaluate the perceived feasibility of achieving one’s desired future goals. In terms of statistical modeling, the investigators employed generalized linear models with a Poisson distribution to calculate adjusted prevalence ratios alongside 95% confidence intervals. Through this methodological approach, the research team carried out stepwise adjustments for confounders and executed detailed subgroup analyses to determine whether the observed relationship varied across distinct demographic groups.

The resulting subgroup analyses demonstrated marked demographic variations in the magnitude of the measured relationship. While positive future expectations were associated with fertility intentions across the broader study population, the researchers observed considerably stronger associations within specific subcategories. In particular, the positive association was notably pronounced among male participants, who showed an adjusted prevalence ratio of 2.87 (95% CI: 2.32–3.54). A similarly heightened effect appeared among residents living in non-metropolitan regions, where the adjusted prevalence ratio reached 2.89 (95% CI: 2.37–3.51). Furthermore, individuals classified in the low socioeconomic status category also demonstrated a substantially stronger association, recording an adjusted prevalence ratio of 2.60 (95% CI: 2.22–3.05).

The authors framed their empirical findings against the backdrop of acute demographic challenges in South Korea, where declining fertility rates continue to place severe strain on urban health systems. In 2024, South Korea recorded a total fertility rate of 0.68, marking the lowest figure observed among member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Traditional government interventions, which have centered predominantly around financial incentives, have demonstrated limited effectiveness, especially in complex and demanding urban settings. Based on their findings, the authors concluded that policies designed to foster career development, provide stable employment opportunities, and support psychological well-being could effectively complement existing financial programs by targeting the psychological dimensions of fertility-related decision-making. Nevertheless, the researchers emphasized an important limitation and stated that additional research remains necessary to determine whether these supportive policies and psychological factors will directly translate into realized fertility behavior or measurable fertility changes at the population level.

Subject of Research: Association between future expectations and fertility intentions among young adults in South Korea

Article Title: The association between young adults’ future expectations and fertility intentions: challenges in an urbanized society in Korea, 2022

Article References: Choi, S., Choi, E., & Jang, S.-Y. (2026). The association between young adults’ future expectations and fertility intentions: challenges in an urbanized society in Korea, 2022. Archives of Public Health. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13690-026-02116-6

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1186/s13690-026-02116-6

Keywords: fertility intentions, future expectations, young adults, South Korea, demographics, public health, Hope Theory, socioeconomic status, association, between, young, adults