Most COVID-19 patients managed through home-based isolation and care in Addis Ababa recovered within about a week, according to a retrospective cohort study published in BMC Infectious Diseases. The study, conducted in Ethiopia’s capital, reported an overall cumulative recovery rate of 88.6 percent, with 241 of 272 patients recovering during the observation period.
The median time to recovery was seven days overall. Patients who had been vaccinated recovered in a median of seven days, while unvaccinated patients took a median of eight days. Recovery incidence densities were 11.64 per 100 person-days overall, 13.19 among vaccinated patients, and 10.34 among unvaccinated patients.
The researchers set out to determine time to recovery and its predictors among COVID-19 patients receiving home-based isolation and care services in Addis Ababa. The city carried a large share of Ethiopia’s cases, and most infections there were managed through home-based isolation rather than in health facilities.
The study used a retrospective cohort design. Sample size was calculated using the Schoenfeld formula, and the analysis covered biomedical, behavioral, and nutritional variables. Statistical methods included Kaplan–Meier estimation, log-rank tests, and both bivariable and multivariable Cox regression. Model adequacy was assessed with Schoenfeld residuals, Cox–Snell residuals, and Harrell’s C-index.
Several factors predicted faster recovery. Vaccination was associated with a higher hazard of recovery, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.62. Prior infection had an adjusted hazard ratio of 2.11, age 30 to 39 years had an adjusted hazard ratio of 2.13, and absence of comorbidity had an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.87.
Other factors were linked to slower recovery. Non-use of masks had an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.39, smoking 0.44, and public-transport use 0.45. Abnormal body mass index was also associated with slower recovery, with adjusted hazard ratios of 0.38 for underweight and 0.67 for overweight patients.
Within the vaccinated group, the cumulative recovery rate reached 91.9 percent, compared with 85.3 percent among unvaccinated patients. These figures describe the observed recovery proportions in this cohort and reflect the associations reported in the multivariable analysis.
The authors concluded that recovery time was short and associated with vaccination, comorbidity, prior infection, and preventive behaviors including mask use and hand hygiene. They suggested that advocating vaccination, integrating comorbidity management, and reinforcing preventive practices could optimize home-based isolation programs, reduce facility burden, and inform policy.
Because the study was retrospective and confined to a single city’s home-based care program, its findings describe recovery patterns and predictors within that setting rather than effects demonstrated in an experimental design. The authors also noted that evidence on recovery trajectories and predictors from sub-Saharan Africa has been limited, which they cited as the gap this analysis aimed to address.
The article was published open access on 24 October 2026 and shared as an early version that is citable and carries a permanent DOI, subject to further edits before the final version of record.
Subject of Research: Time to recovery and predictors among COVID-19 patients under home-based isolation and care in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Article Title: Survival analysis of recovery among COVID‑19 patients managed under home‑based isolation and care: a retrospective cohort study, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Article References: Gizaw, A. B., Baruda, S. K., Wondimagegnehu, A., Aga, A. M., Niguse, D. M., Woldemichael, D. N., & Asfaw, Z. G. (2026). Survival analysis of recovery among COVID‑19 patients managed under home‑based isolation and care: a retrospective cohort study, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. BMC Infectious Diseases. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-026-14662-z
Image Credits: AI Generated
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-026-14662-z
Keywords: COVID-19, home-based isolation, Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, survival analysis, recovery time, vaccination, Cox regression, retrospective cohort, public health, Survival, analysis
News Source: Ophelia Keating. (October 29, 2026). Most COVID-19 Patients in Addis Ababa Recovered Within a Week of Home-Based Care. Scienmag.
