Modeled Saudi Sheep Meat E. Coli Risk Rounds to Zero

A probabilistic quantitative microbial risk assessment of sheep meat in Saudi Arabia has estimated that the median annual incidence of illness from Escherichia coli O157:H7 is zero cases per 100,000 people under both recommended and plausible storage conditions when rounded to the nearest whole case. Conducted by researchers affiliated with the Saudi Food and Drug Authority, the simulation evaluated consumer exposure and health outcomes within the specific context of the domestic food supply and dietary consumption patterns.

Escherichia coli O157:H7 is recognized as an important foodborne bacterial pathogen capable of causing severe clinical outcomes in humans. Although the pathogen has previously been detected in sheep and sheep meat in Saudi Arabia, quantitative estimates evaluating exposure levels and associated illness risks within the national food chain had remained limited.

To evaluate these dynamics, the investigators constructed a probabilistic quantitative microbial risk assessment model tailored to sheep meat. The model evaluated seven fixed initial contamination levels spanning six orders of magnitude, ranging from −3 to 3 log10 CFU/g, while maintaining Saudi consumption and supply patterns across all evaluated configurations.

Each of the seven contamination levels was simulated under two operational storage scenarios. The first scenario represented strict adherence to recommended refrigeration temperatures between 1°C and 5°C, while the second incorporated a plausible storage temperature distribution reflecting realistic conditions across the supply chain.

Across the seven initial contamination levels, both the probability of illness and the modeled annual incidence increased alongside initial bacterial concentrations. At the highest evaluated level of 3 log10 CFU/g, the median probability of illness was estimated at 1.50 × 10⁻⁹ under recommended refrigeration and 3.40 × 10⁻⁹ under the plausible temperature distribution.

A factor-fixing sensitivity analysis identified the probability of illness from a single organism as the most influential parameter in the model, followed by the internal cooking temperature of the meat. The researchers concluded that population-level risk is primarily associated with a subset of high-exposure scenarios observed in the simulation, with overall risk distributions driven by variations in storage and cooking conditions.

Subject of Research: Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in Saudi Arabian sheep meat

Article Title: A quantitative microbial risk assessment of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in sheep meat in Saudi Arabia

Article References: Almasaud, L., Alfaifi, S., Almadani, O., & Alhumaidan, O. (2026). A quantitative microbial risk assessment of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in sheep meat in Saudi Arabia. Frontiers in Microbiology, 17, Article 1972708. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2026.1972708

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2026.1972708

Keywords: Escherichia coli O157:H7, sheep meat, quantitative microbial risk assessment, Saudi Arabia, food safety, foodborne pathogens, probabilistic modeling, refrigeration temperature, cooking temperature, internal temperature, microbial contamination, annual incidence, sensitivity analysis, Saudi Food and Drug Authority, meat storage, exposure assessment, CFU per gram