Dual Model Links Dengue Environmental Risk Signals to Individual Protective Behaviour

Researchers have developed a coupled modelling framework that connects environmental risk signals for dengue fever with the psychological drivers of individual protective behaviour, offering an interpretable approach for urban dengue prevention and control.

The study, published in BMC Infectious Diseases, draws on eight years of environmental and epidemic data from Guangzhou, China, covering 2015 to 2022. Dengue fever is an acute infectious disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, and because vaccines are not widely available, non-pharmacological interventions and behavioural improvements have become key prevention and control strategies.

The framework consists of two sequentially coupled components. The first is a regression model built to explore the effects of Aedes density, climate, and population density on the dengue fever infection rate. This model identifies aggregate environmental risk signals associated with infection rates at the population level.

Those signals then serve as scenario inputs for the second component, a value perception model. In this model, three core psychological variables drive individual protection behaviour: subjective infection probability, the perceived effectiveness of prevention and control measures, and the perception of health loss. Perceived protection cost is also incorporated into the analysis.

Through theoretical scenario simulation and sensitivity analysis, the study identified how changes in subjective infection probability, perceived effectiveness of protective measures, and perceived health loss may influence individual protective tendency. The authors note that these are model-based explorations of how the variables interact, not measurements of observed behaviour change in a real population.

On the basis of the framework, the researchers proposed a three-dimensional comprehensive prevention and control strategy combining vector regulation, behavioural intervention, and medical response. The strategy is presented as a planning output of the modelling work rather than as an intervention that has been tested in the field.

According to the authors, the proposed sequentially coupled dual-model framework provides an interpretable approach for linking environmental risk identification with behavioural decision analysis, and offers evidence-based and targeted strategies for urban dengue fever prevention and control and public health practice.

The work is presented as an early-release, peer-reviewed accepted article, citable with a permanent DOI, subject to further edits before the final version of record. As a modelling study based on data from a single city, its findings describe relationships within the analysed Guangzhou dataset and simulated scenarios; the authors frame it as a decision-support tool for public health practice rather than a demonstration of effectiveness in controlling dengue transmission.

Subject of Research: A dual regression and value perception model for individual protection behaviour against dengue fever in Guangzhou

Article Title: A regression and value perception dual model for individual protection against Dengue

Article References: Pang, S., Chen, Q., You, G., & Dagestani, A. A. (2026). A regression and value perception dual model for individual protection against Dengue. BMC Infectious Diseases. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-026-14621-8

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1186/s12879-026-14621-8

Keywords: dengue fever, Aedes mosquitoes, regression model, value perception, Guangzhou, non-pharmacological interventions, vector regulation, behavioural intervention, public health, infection rate, sensitivity analysis, risk communication