Study Evaluates Transport-Driven NOx Emissions and Mitigation Scenarios in Campania

In 2021, total regional nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions in Campania, Southern Italy, reached 45,380.7 Mg yr⁻¹, with road transport accounting for 56.0% and other mobile sources and machinery contributing 22.4%. Together, these transport sectors produced 78.4% of total regional emissions, confirming the transport-driven profile of the area. According to an evaluation of the latest official regional emission inventory by researchers Marco Palomba and Salvatore Rossetti, total NOx emissions in Campania decreased by 43.1% between 2002 and 2021, primarily driven by reductions in road transport and industrial combustion, while emissions from other mobile sources increased by 23.1%.

Evaluating long-term emission trajectories through deterministic business-as-usual (BAU) modeling, the study projects regional NOx emissions of 39,165.4 Mg yr⁻¹ in 2030, 37,117.8 Mg yr⁻¹ in 2040, and 39,657.9 Mg yr⁻¹ in 2050. The modeled post-2040 rebound is associated with expanding contributions from non-road mobile sources, stationary combustion, and other growing categories. Across tested alternative BAU assumptions, projected trajectories varied markedly, and road transport was not projected to remain the largest emission source in 2050 under any BAU case.

Scenario evaluations showed that road-transport interventions provide the largest short-term single-sector benefit, whereas measures targeting other mobile sources become increasingly critical toward 2050. An integrated multi-sector strategy achieved the greatest modeled reductions, averaging 22.39% in 2030, 19.92% in 2040, and 17.11% in 2050. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated that the integrated approach retained the largest modeled reduction under assumed ranges of mitigation effectiveness, although uncertainty in the regional inventory and the baseline BAU trajectory was not represented. The authors conclude that future regional policies must combine road-transport measures with targeted interventions addressing maritime activities, ports, off-road machinery, and stationary combustion.

Subject of Research: Sectoral trends, projections, and mitigation scenarios for NOx emissions in Campania, Italy

Article Title: Transport-driven NOx emissions in Campania, Italy: sectoral trends, long-term projections and mitigation scenarios

Article References: Marco, P., & Salvatore, R. (2026). Transport-driven NOx emissions in Campania, Italy: sectoral trends, long-term projections and mitigation scenarios. Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health, 19(11), Article 258. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-026-02134-x

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1007/s11869-026-02134-x

Keywords: air quality, nitrogen oxides, Campania, transport emissions, emission inventory, environmental modeling, mitigation scenarios, mobile sources, Transport-driven, emissions, Italy, sectoral