Suicide mortality followed diverse country-specific trajectories across South America from 2000 to 2021, with full-period annual changes ranging from a 2.24% decline in Chile to a 3.23% increase in Paraguay. An ecological time-series analysis of all 12 South American countries found that the population-weighted regional rate was stable through the 2000s and rose modestly after 2015. Changes during 2019–2021 were comparatively unremarkable, and no country showed a statistically significant increase in that window.
The study analyzed age-standardized suicide mortality estimates from the World Health Organization’s Global Health Observatory. It applied log-linear joinpoint regression separately to 36 country-by-sex strata, covering women and men in each of the 12 countries. This produced segment-specific annual percent changes, or APCs, and an average annual percent change, or AAPC, for the full 2000–2021 period.
Because the analysis tested many country- and sex-specific estimates, the researchers applied the Benjamini–Hochberg false-discovery-rate procedure to account for multiple comparisons. Following that correction, 66 estimates remained statistically significant: 43 segment-specific APCs and 23 full-period AAPCs. The national trajectories were grouped into five temporal profiles, with countries following divergent patterns rather than a single common course.
The regional pattern remained broadly stable through the 2000s before increasing modestly after 2015. In contrast, the most pronounced changes during 2019–2021 were declines of 12.65% in Chile, 8.61% in Argentina and 19.68% among women in Bolivia. The study found no significant national increase during the final three years, providing no evidence of a pandemic-related rise at the country level within the observed window.
The sex-specific analysis also covered the male-to-female mortality ratio throughout the full series and decomposed that ratio into male and female contributions. Together with the country-level results, this analysis showed that the continental pattern consisted of multiple sex-specific trajectories. Some populations experienced increases over the full period, others declines, and multiple countries changed direction at different points in the two-decade series.
The findings put the 2019–2021 period in the context of changes that had occurred before the COVID-19 pandemic. In this dataset, pre-pandemic inflections were often larger than the changes observed during the final years. The result does not establish that the pandemic had no effect in any individual or community; rather, the study detected no significant country-level increase within the 2019–2021 window after correcting for multiple comparisons.
As an ecological analysis based on population-level mortality estimates, the research does not identify the causes of the observed trends or their consequences for particular individuals. The authors concluded that suicide prevention priorities should include both countries with rising trends and countries with sustained high mortality burdens. The open-access research was published in BMC Public Health on 21 October 2026 as an accepted version intended to provide early access while remaining citable through a permanent DOI.
The supplied version notes that it may undergo further edits before the final version of record.
Subject of Research: Sex-specific suicide mortality trends in 12 South American countries, 2000–2021
Article Title: Divergent suicide mortality trends across South America, 2000–2021: a 12-country joinpoint regression analysis by sex
Article References: Varea, J. E. C. (2026). Divergent suicide mortality trends across South America, 2000–2021: a 12-country joinpoint regression analysis by sex. BMC Public Health. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-29526-z
Image Credits: AI Generated
DOI: 10.1186/s12889-026-29526-z
Keywords: suicide mortality, South America, sex differences, joinpoint regression, ecological study, WHO mortality estimates, COVID-19 pandemic, public health, mortality trends, regional health, Divergent, suicide
News Source: Phoebe Ingram. (October 26, 2026). 12-country analysis maps sex-specific suicide trends in South America, 2000–2021. Scienmag.
