Amid the intensifying challenge of global warming, agricultural activities have emerged as a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. Accounting for approximately 9% to 14% of total global emissions, agriculture’s impact stretches beyond food production to encompass complex ecological and economic implications. Understanding how agricultural carbon emissions (ACE) evolve over time and space, especially within rapidly developing regions, is imperative for devising effective carbon mitigation strategies that harmonize environmental sustainability with food security and economic growth. A recent comprehensive study led by Professor Zhiqiang Chen from Fujian Normal University sheds new light on the dynamic trajectory of ACE in Fujian Province, China, a region marked by complex geography and rapid socioeconomic transformation.
Fujian Province’s landscape is predominantly mountainous, with over 80% of its terrain characterized by steep elevations and limited arable land. Despite these agricultural constraints, the province maintains a vibrant economy heavily reliant on intensive farming practices that incorporate substantial material inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides, and energy. This paradox—limited natural cultivation space combined with high input dependence—renders Fujian an intriguing case study for analyzing nuanced spatial-temporal emission patterns. The investigation spanned two critical decades, from 2002 to 2022, employing internationally recognized methodologies to dissect the multifaceted nature of ACE within the province.
Central to the study’s methodology was the utilization of the IPCC’s Carbon Emission Calculation Framework, ensuring global comparability of results and methodological rigor. To further unravel the drivers behind emission trends, the scientists employed the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition model, which disaggregates changes in emissions into specific contributing factors. Additionally, the Tapio decoupling model was introduced to elucidate the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and economic growth—a pivotal inquiry in understanding whether sustainable development is feasible within this context. Anticipating future developments, the GM (1,1) grey forecasting model was applied to project ACE trajectories, incorporating inherent uncertainties characteristic of agricultural systems.
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Analysis of the data revealed a compelling “double decline” phenomenon where both the total volume of carbon emissions and the intensity of emissions per unit of agricultural output diminished significantly over the twenty-year period. Total agricultural carbon emissions decreased from roughly 17.82 million tons in 2002 to about 14.62 million tons in 2022, amounting to a cumulative reduction exceeding 3 million tons. This equated to an average annual decline of 0.9%, marking a substantial turnaround for the region. Even more striking was the rate of emission intensity decline—the amount of carbon emitted per 10,000 yuan of agricultural output plummeted by more than 82%, indicating substantial gains in efficiency and sustainability.
The province’s strategic agricultural policies, encapsulated in the “one control, two reductions, three basics” initiative, played a crucial role in steering this positive trend. These policies prioritize limiting chemical fertilizer use, reducing pesticide application, and optimizing water utilization while bolstering basic farmland protection, seed quality improvement, and ecological conservation. The adoption of these measures catalyzed Fujian’s transition toward ecological agriculture, nurturing a farming paradigm that emphasizes environmental stewardship alongside productivity.
Investigating the composition of emissions exposed that agricultural material inputs remain the dominant source, contributing approximately 40% of total carbon outputs annually. Within this category, fertilizer use accounted for a staggering 56.3%, underscoring the profound environmental footprint of agrochemical reliance. Farmland utilization and livestock breeding constituted the next largest shares at 34.1% and 25.9%, respectively. Particular emphasis was placed on the emissions connected to specific practices: late rice cultivation was responsible for almost 77% of farmland-related emissions, while pig farming led livestock emissions with over 60% contribution, spotlighting these activities as key leverage points for reducing agricultural carbon footprints.
Spatial analysis revealed a persistent “higher in the west, lower in the east” distribution pattern of agricultural carbon emissions across Fujian. In 2002, Zhangzhou stood as the sole high-emission region, propelled by its abundant arable land and entrenched traditional farming systems. By 2012, however, western cities such as Nanping, Sanming, and Longyan emerged as new carbon emission hotspots. Their fragmented farmland, increased dependency on input-intensive farming, and concentrated large-scale livestock operations exacerbated emission levels. Despite this, subsequent years witnessed a remarkable reduction in emissions in these western hubs—decreases ranged from approximately 5% to nearly 25% between 2012 and 2022—reflecting the tangible effects of green policy interventions. Conversely, eastern coastal metropolises like Fuzhou and Xiamen maintained relatively low carbon outputs, attributable to limited cultivation areas and advanced agricultural mechanization and modernization.
Delving deeper into emission drivers through LMDI analysis, the study highlighted agricultural production efficiency improvements as the pivotal force behind emission curtailment, responsible for more than half of the total reduction. Mechanization advances, the integration of green technologies, and the consolidation of farmland into larger-scale operations collectively enhanced output per unit input, thereby diminishing carbon intensity. Concurrently, the demographic shift—exemplified by a decline in the rural population from 54.3% to 29.9% over the two decades—alongside structural economic changes, such as the diminished GDP proportion from agriculture (from 25.2% to 10.4%), underpinned the emission downtrend. However, these accomplishments contrast with ongoing pressures where urbanization and regional economic expansion contribute upward forces on emissions, underscoring the complexity of balancing growth with sustainability.
Crucially, the study demonstrated a “strong decoupling” phenomenon between agricultural carbon emissions and economic development within Fujian. While agricultural output value enjoyed an annual growth rate of about 7% from 2002 to 2022, carbon emissions contracted by approximately 2.3% annually during the same timeframe. This inverse relationship signifies successful advances in sustainable agriculture, where economic prosperity need not be accompanied by escalating environmental costs, providing a hopeful template for other rapidly industrializing regions globally struggling with similar challenges.
Looking ahead, predictive modeling with the GM (1,1) grey system forecast anticipates that if current trajectories persist, agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian could decline by between 7.1% and 20.5% by 2030 relative to 2022 levels. Projections extend to a more ambitious 15.2% to 40.5% drop by 2040, signaling substantive potential for achieving low-carbon agricultural economies. These forecasts accentuate the importance of continued policy support and innovation, as the pressing urgency of climate change escalates demands for robust mitigation pathways.
The research also suggests targeted strategies to amplify emission reductions in the future. Promoting organic fertilizers could substantially lower dependence on synthetic chemicals, thereby decreasing the carbon footprint. Optimizing rice cropping patterns, particularly managing water regimes and planting schedules in late rice cultivation, could mitigate methane emissions associated with paddy fields. Enhancing livestock manure management to improve resource recycling and reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions stands as another critical intervention. Moreover, crafting differentiated spatial policies that recognize and address the distinct agriculture-environment dynamics between eastern and western Fujian could maximize effectiveness and equity in achieving province-wide green transformation.
In conclusion, this pioneering study of Fujian Province delineates intricate spatial-temporal patterns of agricultural carbon emissions entwined with socio-economic development and policy frameworks. Its integrative analytical approach, coupling rigorous emission accounting with advanced decomposition and forecasting models, provides a robust template for future research and policy formulation. As global sustainability discourse intensifies, insights from Fujian highlight that the transition to low-carbon agriculture is both feasible and imperative, requiring synergistic efforts spanning technological innovation, institutional reform, and localized adaptive strategies. This research not only charts a hopeful path forward for Fujian but also offers profound implications for global agricultural sustainability amidst the mounting pressures of climate change.
Subject of Research: Not applicable
Article Title: Temporal and spatial evolution of agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian Province, China
News Publication Date: 6-May-2025
Web References: http://dx.doi.org/10.15302/J-FASE-2024594
References: DOI: 10.15302/J-FASE-2024594
Image Credits: Weiye LI, Zhiqiang CHEN, Zhibiao CHEN, Yuee ZENG, Wenjing HU
Keywords: Agriculture
Tags: agricultural carbon emissions in Fujiancarbon mitigation strategies for farmingcomprehensive study on carbon emissionsecological implications of agricultural practicesfertilizer and pesticide use in farmingfood security and environmental sustainabilitygeography and agriculture in Fujiangreenhouse gas emissions from agricultureimpact of agriculture on global warmingintensive farming practices and sustainabilitysocioeconomic transformation in Fujianspatial-temporal patterns of emissions
