India’s greenhouse gas emissions projected to keep rising through 2035

An analysis of India’s greenhouse gas emissions, drawing on more than three decades of official data, projects that the country’s emissions will continue to climb through 2035 under current trends. The study, published in Green Technology, Resilience, and Sustainability, examines emissions from 1994 to 2024 using figures reported by India’s Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change.

The researchers, Vaibhab Ghosh and Phonindra Nath Das, applied four statistical forecasting methods to the historical emissions record: ARIMA time-series modelling, Holt’s exponential smoothing, logistic fitting, and polynomial fitting. Across these approaches, the projections generally point in the same direction — a continuing upward trend in India’s greenhouse gas emissions over the projection period ending in 2035.

Beyond forecasting, the study explored the relationship between emissions and economic growth through the Environmental Kuznets Curve framework. In this case, the analysis suggests an association between India’s GDP and its emissions, although the authors caution that the nature of this relationship warrants careful interpretation. An observed association alone does not establish how economic growth drives emissions, or whether the curve would bend downward at higher income levels.

The authors frame their findings as a warning about trajectory rather than a fixed outcome. The abstract states that greenhouse gas emissions in India may continue to rise under current trends, underscoring the potential importance of mitigation and policy interventions. In other words, the projections describe what happens if historical patterns persist; they are not predictions of what must happen, and policy changes could alter the path.

The study has several limitations worth noting. It relies on government-reported emissions data, so its projections inherit any uncertainties in that record. The forecasting models extrapolate past patterns forward, which cannot account for abrupt policy shifts, technological changes, or economic disruptions. The Environmental Kuznets Curve analysis is explicitly presented as suggestive rather than definitive. The article was published on 22 October 2026 as an open-access original research paper, shared early as a citable accepted version that remains subject to further edits before the final Version of Record appears.

For readers tracking climate policy, the study’s contribution is a data-driven baseline: a consistent, multi-model projection that India’s emissions, as officially reported, are on a rising path toward 2035.

Subject of Research: Forecasting India's greenhouse gas emissions from 1994–2024 data and their relationship to economic growth

Article Title: A data-driven analysis of greenhouse gas emissions in India indicates a significant increase over the next decade

Article References: Ghosh, V., & Das, P. N. (2026). A data-driven analysis of greenhouse gas emissions in India indicates a significant increase over the next decade. Green Technology, Resilience, and Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44173-026-00041-z

Image Credits: AI Generated

DOI: 10.1007/s44173-026-00041-z

Keywords: greenhouse gas emissions, India, ARIMA, forecasting, Environmental Kuznets Curve, GDP, climate policy, time-series analysis, mitigation, emissions trends, data-driven, analysis